Which Pack Test Metrics Actually Predict Sales?

Designalytics has been doing packaging research for a looooong time. Recently, they did some research with IRI to see which test metrics predict in-market results for 52 pack redesigns across a range of CPG categories.

They compared sales for the 6 months after the redesign with the same 6 month period from the prior year. Then they checked how well those sales results correlated with the different metrics from the pack test.

What DIDN’T predict in-market success too good was whether people “liked” the new design. (It had a 46% correlation.)

Surprisingly (for me at least), find time wasn’t correlated with sales results either.