When do you know you launched a bullseye vs a brick?

Like, when do the winners & losers start to separate?

Nielsen crunched a whole lot of data to see the pattern — at least in terms of distribution — for CPG (consumer packaged goods).

They found that for the first 6 months, all launches grow distribution equally well. (% ACV is a measure of how many stores a product is sold in out of all the possible stores. Roughly-ish.) Good sell-in and retailer excitement helps most brands ramp up quickly.

But around the 6-8-month mark, distribution starts to slow down for the losers. By the end of year 1, winners start to really pull away. And by the end of year 2, winners, marginal launches, and losers have clearly diverged. 

WHY brands lose distribution is a post for another time, but spoiler: slow/low velocity (sales at shelf).

Nielsen also finds that ~85% of new product launches don’t make it past year 2. #Sadface.

Caveats galore, but some LESSONS:

🍊 Assume your launch has the same odds (unless you have some fabulous magical pre-testing).

🍊 Don’t get too excited about distribution growth in the first 6 months.

🍊 Success is harrrrrrrd.