Are there small brands with high “loyalty”?
Like, are there brands with low household penetration but high buy rate?
The TL;DR: no. Not really. Like hardly ever. Like nearly never.
F’rinstance, Colgate is for sale around the world. But it’s in a different situation in each country.
@Kantar crunched the numbers from their huge sets of panel data, where they record thousands of households and millions of purchases (in this case, for 2021).
Turns out, penetration moves in lock-step with buy rate. Like, really really tightly too.
This is another illustration of the law of Double Jeopardy: small brands have fewer buyers who also buy them less often.
(Aka lower HHP & lower “loyalty”. Tho I hate that word because it mixes up all kinds of feelings & behaviors & crap.)
But in this case, it’s the same brand, but as it plays out in different countries.
What do you do with the Law of Double Jeopardy?
Embrace it. Stop believing in fairy tales about tiny brands with nothing but heavy buyers.
Look for where you are on the curve in your market & category.
Control for “weight class” when you compare yourself to other brands.
Look for the wiggle — the deviations that add up to real $$ and €€ and ¥¥ — and figure out why they’re there.
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