Is churn normal in B2B industries? 
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Is churn normal in B2B industries? 

B2B relationships have a reputation for being long and stable.

A common belief is, companies find a supplier they like — equipment, taxes, SaaS — and they stick with them. Because switching stinks.

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Do Grocery Loyalty Programs Work?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Do Grocery Loyalty Programs Work?

Dr. Jorna Leenheer & Co looked at data for 1,900 Dutch households over 2 years, covering 20 supermarkets and all 7 grocery loyalty programs.

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Are expensive spirits sold in heavier bottles?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Are expensive spirits sold in heavier bottles?

Shouldn’t nicer spirits be sold in thick-walled, faceted, hefty bottles?

Turns out there’s less than a 20% correlation between price & weight. (The Rsq of the linear regression is a measly 0.039. 😂)

As a marketer and brand scientist (and the proprietor of a speakeasy), it baffles me that bottle weight isn’t used more often as a symbol of quality for the liquid inside.

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Does click-through rate actually matter?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Does click-through rate actually matter?

Did CTR correlate with ad recall? Nope. Less than 1%, in fact.

How about brand awareness? Nope. Or purchase intent? Nope nope. Both less than 1%.

But surely ROI? Ha. ROI had a -0.07% correlation with CTR. 😂😂😂

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Are there small brands with high “loyalty”?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Are there small brands with high “loyalty”?

Like, are there brands with low household penetration but high buy rate?
The TL;DR: no. Not really. Like hardly ever. Like nearly never.
F’rinstance, Colgate is for sale around the world. But it’s in a different situation in each country.
Turns out, penetration moves in lock-step with buy rate. Like, really really tightly too.

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Running radio ads? Fix your brand linkage!
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Running radio ads? Fix your brand linkage!

If someone hears your ad on the radio, can they even say what brand it’s for?


System 1 Research & Radiocentre tested 131 radio ads in the UK.


Shockingly — I mean, it’s _right_after_the_ad_played_ — 40% of the ads had poor linkage.

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Should you trust in-platform attribution models?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Should you trust in-platform attribution models?

Attribution is tricky. Last-click attribution is also, uh, sketchy. Why?


1. It often confuses correlation with causation. Did views CAUSE sales or just correlate with them?
2. It rarely accounts for 10 or 12 other factors that are likely involved.
3. It’s got conflict-of-interest built in: of COURSE a platform wants to claim brand lift or sales impact or whatnot.

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How Much Do Ad Agencies Love Young People?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

How Much Do Ad Agencies Love Young People?

*Obvi that means old people are, uh, well, ah.

“It’s not that you’re… We’re just going in a different direction…”

(I can neither confirm nor deny whether this is a real quote spoken to me.)

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Can music influence what people buy?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Can music influence what people buy?

Like, can music subtly or subconsciously change people’s behavior?

For two weeks, folks from the University of Leicester did a little field experiment.

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How Do Things Actually“Go Viral?”
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

How Do Things Actually“Go Viral?”

Folks from Stanford & Microsoft analyzed the spread of over 600 millllllion things on Twitter during 2011-12: news, videos, photos, etc.

Turns out, the the biggest hits aren’t ‘viral’.

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Did “Got Milk?” Got Sales?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Did “Got Milk?” Got Sales?

The “Got Milk?” campaign is famous, lauded, & iconic.

Nearly 300 celebs participated over 2 decades. Even Yoda had a milk mustache in ‘99.

But did it work? “Look at the data, you must.”

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Is 100% brand loyalty normal or freakish?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Is 100% brand loyalty normal or freakish?

We love to fantasize about the brand loyalist. 

You know: the one who only ever ever exclusively buys Levi’s, or Tito’s, or Sony. (Sony’s?)

But for nearly every category, they’re the outliers. They’re the freaks.

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What helps new brands grow the most?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

What helps new brands grow the most?

Launching a new brand is harrrd. And most new brands fail. 

But of all the things you can do, what drives growth the most?

Ataman, Mela, and van Heerde dissected how the 4 P’s of the Marketing Mix impact brand launches (not line extensions).

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How Much Do B2B Buyers Really Shop Around?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

How Much Do B2B Buyers Really Shop Around?

To find out, Bain & Company surveyed over 1,200 people at US companies who help procure hardware, software, logistics, equipment, cloud services, marketing, etc.

Turns out, 80-90% of them already have a clear set of brands in mind before they even start shopping.

And 90% of them pick a brand from that initial consideration set. (That’s like 70-80% of all B2B buyers.) Yowza!

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Should you use ROI to measure your advertising?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Should you use ROI to measure your advertising?

(Especially don’t trust in-platform measures of ROI. They’re incomplete, speculative, and, well, designed to make the platform look good.)

To boot, 99% of your future buyers are building consideration sets in their minds today for purchases they’ll make next [week month year].

So maybe use ROI to measure ad efficiency.

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What are the odds your small business will survive?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

What are the odds your small business will survive?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has data for 19MM small companies born over the past 30 years. 

About half make it past their 5th birthday. And 1 in 5 make it to legal drinking age (21).

But “survival of the fittest” applies too: the odds of living for another year hit 90% after 4 years, and plateau at around 95.5% after 17 yrs.

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Is it time to ditch generational labels?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

Is it time to ditch generational labels?

Should we stop making sweeping statements about Gen-Z and Boomers?

F’rinstance, Pew Research Center found that there are absolutely generational differences in the probability of 22-38-yr-olds being married. The Silent Generation had a 68% chance of being married in that age range, whereas Millennials only have a 38% chance.

But those shifts were basically smooth & LINEAR

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How small is your shopper’s consideration set?
Ethan Decker Ethan Decker

How small is your shopper’s consideration set?

How many brands in your category do they even consider buying?

McKinsey found that initial consideration sets for major purchases can be tiny: 3.8 for cars, and only 1.7 for computers. 

And we only consider 1 or 2 more brands while we shop. 

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